We're number 2! We're number 2! (for insecurity... yeah!)

Lovely to be back from R&R. I spent 2 weeks in the Europe eating and drinking all the things. I think I visited every H&M on the continent to replace my wardrobe that has slowly eroded into nothing over the last seven months. Have to be well dressed to face Lakes State's recent promotion to second most insecure area!

When I left RBK there were altercations with the police and wildlife services over cut in pay. Without going into details, the event was a lot worse than what the media makes it out to be (*cough* there is absolutely no suppression of the media here). I've returned to something a bit worse.

Currently it is the season for traditional dancing and gatherings. Which on the surface is really cool. There are a lot of cattle keepers in town, there are a lot of flags and singing and dancing and running and drumming etc etc. But there are also a lot of guns. There have been shootings everyday at schools, on the street, late at night. There have also been a number of break ins to businesses, kidnappings and threats to business owners, and systemic attacks against East Africans and South Sudanese that are not from Lakes (Lakes is also just getting over a malaria epidemic and  MASSIVE floods that displaced an estimated 23,000 people in Awerial County in Lakes).

Next week salaries are released again. There is still no money to pay the armed services their full salaries. We've also been informed that the SPLA may not get their full salaries either - which may make them a bit peeved. They were the only government body to be paid, in full (or at all) since the beginning of austerity measures. This place will be one to watch. 

FORTUNATELY, the Sudanese and South Sudanese executives have agreed on enough to start the oil  flowing again and solve some of the citizenship issues. This will still take 6 months for any revenues, but they will both be eligible for loans. There's also a rumour that the Qataries threw a few hundred million dollars into the pot to help float this place (and promptly decrease the already artificially low exchange rate... sigh...). So I hope everything will calm down a bit and everyone can get paid. What the deal did not do is tough the disputed territories on the borded of the North and South. Nor did it discuss how the North is air dropping arms into Jonglei State, or how the South is turning a blind eye to militias operating openly out of Unity State. But foreign enemies are a nice distraction from the internal issues that both countries face. So I guess they may not want to clean these up too quickly?

 

Long story short. South Sudan. One to watch?

Ending impunity for human rights abusers

Interesting opinion piece in the New York Times by Kathryn Sikkink on prosecuting leaders who use - or turn a blind eye to - gross human rights abuses in their country. Research apparently shows that states that have prosecuted leaders for this are less likely to have their future leaders practice human rights abuses.

Liberia's Bike Riders

Motorcycles are everywhere in Monrovia.

During the Liberian civil war combatants and refugees sought refuge in neighbouring Guinea. Inspired by the enterprising young Guineans running their own business, Liberians returned with an idea to fill the transportation gap in their country ravaged by years of war. Former Combatants used the money they received from the DDRR process to purchase inexpensive Chinese motorcycles and lease them to drivers.

The business model exploded.

The work serves as good employment for scores of unemployed young men - an estimated 75% or more are former combatants. It also provides employments for younger members of society, as motorcycles washers. The children use the money to pay excess school fees.

But the model isn’t perfect. This mode of transportation is dangerous. Daily there are several crashes resulting in severe injuries and sometimes death. The bikers do not wear protective gear – neither do their passengers – and outside Monrovia, it’s rare that they have a license. The bike riders have a tenuous relationship with the police and some members of the community who see the bike gangs as unsafe. Altercations with the police have left some police stations up in flames. Police and community members know bike riders can organise quickly and as a result there is unease about the gangs of bike riders.

It’s something the police are going to have to work with. Motorcycle taxis, or “motos” as they are known in some areas are becoming an increasingly common mode of public transportation in West Africa. It is inexpensive, the bikes are easy to maintain, and business is flourishing as a result of limited public transportation options. More importantly, they are fast. They can weave in and out congested traffic on overcrowded streets.

There is work to further professionalize the practice – realising that it provides much needed employment to young men (from what I’ve gathered there aren’t any female bike riders). NGOs, the UN and even the World Bank have worked with the Bike Riders Association – their informal union – to increase licensing, encourage safer practices and facilitate dialogue between the police and the bike riders. These actions have some effect, yet more is likely needed to improve the safety of the community and the riders themselves. Much more needs to be done to build trust between the police and the bike riders.

Cool as a Cucumber

It's pretty much sweltering here. With temperatures averaging in high 30s (I know, I know, it will get hotter… I was here last summer too). What amazes me though is how quick it cam on. It seems like only a month ago I was still wearing a sweater at night and complaining that it was too cold out to wear t-shirts. Now I can't even thing of spending more than 5 minutes outside of an air-conditioned space between the hours of 8am – 8 pm.

I think things in Erbil (a sneaking suspicion) may heat up here too in other ways. Things have been pretty kinetic down Mosul way (as usual) but in a different sort of way. Now that the arab political parties have seized power, the violence has shifted to the Kurdish population (or more specifically the peshmerga) effectively blocking the arab politicians from accessing anywhere they deem to be "Kurdish" areas. Whilst doing this, they are also denying many of the people in these areas essential public services… then blaming it on the current, majority Arab government (I'm sure this tactic was also used in reverse when the kurds held power there). This has led to clashes between the Iraqi forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga (the KRG's army).

Now I'm no expert in political science… (maybe a master…) But I'm pretty sure somewhere in Statebuilding 101 they go over how more than one army in a country (particularly armies that represent different ethnic groups and exclusively responsible for certain… contested areas) could set you up for future… don't know… disasters.

To boot, the GOI is now stoking the fire with the Kirkuk question again. To be honest… rightly so. The country should have voted on the status of Kirkuk (KRG or GOI?) many moons ago, but both the GOI and the KRG have put it off for various reasons. This has enraged the KRG and maybe some of the reasons (amongst many) of the upswing (again) of violence in that contested area.

Now I'm bring all of this up because on June 25 there are suppose to be elections here in the KRG. I'm curious to see what will happen in and around the "safe" region of Iraq. Whilst it seems that everywhere along the green line is going to hell in a handbag, here is still cool (ok hot) and calm. I'm not a fear mongerer. I like to give people and places the benefit of the doubt. I am, however, a realist. And to my knowledge the KRG has its fingers in too many pots – where they happen to be stirring some serious shit. It's only a matter of time.

Then again, the GOI provincial elections went off without a hitch… stranger things could happen.