March 6th!!!

We have a date. Elections were originally for the end of January. To coincide with what's stated in the.... I don't know... constitution. After much back and forth, sqwabbling, vetoing, concessions and compromises the new election law was passed in the wee hours of the morning yesterday.

The election is now set for March 6th 2010, 49 days past its last proposed date. It gives ample time for campaigning, but also for the security surrounding the elections to deteriorate. Much like today, when a series of coordinated bombings targeting government buildings, public areas, Al Mustensari University and the Institute of Fine Arts. It is believed that over 120 people were killed and 450 injured. Those numbers are likely to rise - sadly following November - the month with the least amount of violence related deaths since the start of the 2003 war.

Here's hoping that everything calms itself down!

Photo Credit: Dennis Hollingsworth

Cool as a Cucumber

It's pretty much sweltering here. With temperatures averaging in high 30s (I know, I know, it will get hotter… I was here last summer too). What amazes me though is how quick it cam on. It seems like only a month ago I was still wearing a sweater at night and complaining that it was too cold out to wear t-shirts. Now I can't even thing of spending more than 5 minutes outside of an air-conditioned space between the hours of 8am – 8 pm.

I think things in Erbil (a sneaking suspicion) may heat up here too in other ways. Things have been pretty kinetic down Mosul way (as usual) but in a different sort of way. Now that the arab political parties have seized power, the violence has shifted to the Kurdish population (or more specifically the peshmerga) effectively blocking the arab politicians from accessing anywhere they deem to be "Kurdish" areas. Whilst doing this, they are also denying many of the people in these areas essential public services… then blaming it on the current, majority Arab government (I'm sure this tactic was also used in reverse when the kurds held power there). This has led to clashes between the Iraqi forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga (the KRG's army).

Now I'm no expert in political science… (maybe a master…) But I'm pretty sure somewhere in Statebuilding 101 they go over how more than one army in a country (particularly armies that represent different ethnic groups and exclusively responsible for certain… contested areas) could set you up for future… don't know… disasters.

To boot, the GOI is now stoking the fire with the Kirkuk question again. To be honest… rightly so. The country should have voted on the status of Kirkuk (KRG or GOI?) many moons ago, but both the GOI and the KRG have put it off for various reasons. This has enraged the KRG and maybe some of the reasons (amongst many) of the upswing (again) of violence in that contested area.

Now I'm bring all of this up because on June 25 there are suppose to be elections here in the KRG. I'm curious to see what will happen in and around the "safe" region of Iraq. Whilst it seems that everywhere along the green line is going to hell in a handbag, here is still cool (ok hot) and calm. I'm not a fear mongerer. I like to give people and places the benefit of the doubt. I am, however, a realist. And to my knowledge the KRG has its fingers in too many pots – where they happen to be stirring some serious shit. It's only a matter of time.

Then again, the GOI provincial elections went off without a hitch… stranger things could happen.